Future Society (English version)

Future Society

"Marginal cost zero society" which is the end of the ultimate digitization revealed with reality. Everything is automated, it gets free or nearly as low as it is, convenience of individual life and efficiency of business management dramatically improve, while labor is taken by AI and robot to realize it The harsh reality that the employment disappears approaches.

For companies pursuing thorough globalization and digitization, growth in different dimensions that will realize corporate value of several trillion yen in a few years is no longer a dream, but behind it there is an inequality of assets and income It became ruthless. The disparity is getting rid of the middle income group which has been the source of corporate earnings.

Meanwhile, the middle income group who felt such a sense of crisis began to rebound against globalism violently. And, as a result of the "inward phenomenon" of developed countries represented by BREXIT from the EU and emergence of Trump, the center of gravity of the world finally disappeared and the future of the market could not be visible at all.

The chain of these phenomena produced by the "action" and "reaction" loops of globalization and digitization can no longer be stopped. Even if globalism that was announced "NO" in each country in 2016 will disappear from the leading role of the times, digitization surely increases its momentum. As a voter, even if we give protests against loss of employment, in the position of consumers, we can no longer let go of the smartphone I got once. In other words, we do not control digitalization, but as a de facto fact itself, we are forced to think about society in the future. It is exactly the construction of "Future Society".

So, before talking about 2017, I would like to start from the viewpoint of how to capture the present in history and what to assume.

The collapse of "democracy + capitalism"

The developed countries and societies that have demonstrated powerful influence over the world's control have been divided into "democracy" secured by majority voting logic and social contracts, "capitalism" which functions by a combination of individualism and market fundamentalism. It continues to grow on the premise, keeping domestic and foreign order. States and regions that do not conform to this principle were treated as being distinguished from a "mature world".

However, in developed countries, the existence of "winning group" and "losing group" becomes conspicuous, the inequality of income and assets worsens. In addition, as the elite policy such as the German immigration policy and the US TPP policy develops, the pessimistic awareness that "there is no social contract that can entrust himself" has spread among people. People who have received bloated capitalist reactions will agree with claims that will solve "their familiar problems", such as employment, salary and social security. And as a result of exercising the only "leftovers of majority vote", the withdrawal of the British EU was decided, President Trump was born.

It is said that these two events are symbolic of anti-globalism by the middle income group, but if we comprehend the background, the balance between democracy and capitalism has collapsed, no longer the social equilibrium. It is understood that there is not it. And this trend will spread to other countries in the future.

The free trade regime disappears

The globalization of enterprises was premised on the existence of a free trade system that enables business to be developed basically at zero cost in any country or region. And what really supported it was the existence of the United States which can make eye to the order of the world. But now, many of the people of the United States say "Do not care about other countries, etc. If you can afford to do such things, domestically, please care me".

Last year we talked about the fact that the United States who got off from the seat of the world police began to leave the surrounding area to each of the major powers of each region, but this trend will become even more noticeable as President Trump. Although regional conflicts that have taken on individual circumstances such as Russia's entry into Ukraine and the Syrian issue in the Middle East are getting worse, economic and social mechanisms different from so-called traditional Western developed countries such as China, Russia and Islamic countries , It comes to rise in earnest.

China practices the so-called "state oligopoly capitalism" model through the Communist Party rule, and Islamic countries prefer religion over economic interests. Both are not "a set model of democracy and capitalism" that has been regarded as common sense until now. Corporations must fight across such diversified economic zones, with different principles, institutions, business practices and everything else.

A full-fledged arrival of zero marginal cost society

While globalization slows down, digitization will accelerate further and there is no doubt that it will be a zero marginal cost society. In 2016, the story that AI and robots rob her of employment from human beings was talked about in the middle of a story and the media was also making noise, but this is an unbelievable fact.

Amazon changed the delivery center to the Kiva system, and Hong Hai replaced the workers with multi-limb robots. In the Amazon GO of a real store announced the other day, we are trying to realize a shop without a cash register by combining video recognition technology and AI. It is certainly afraid of the fact that jobs are gone, but as consumers we are already enjoying the benefits of these services in our daily lives and expecting a supermarket without a cash register. That's the reality.

However, society of the past has realized its richness by individual efforts to feel motivated to realize their own growth or economic affluence, and to be motivated by cultivating their families. Is it possible in a society in which 70% of existing work is said to be gone, is it really possible to "realize a life full of life as a human being, to maintain personal self-actualization and social stability"?

A society supported by basic income and basic services

As a practical solution to this question, the introduction of basic income will be discussed. Specifically, replacing existing social security expenditures with basic income. And, with my number, it is linked with the basic expenditure on food, clothing, shelter and living, making it possible to make a tax deduction with benefits which is said to be negative income tax. Needless to say, jobs that use human hands are still necessary, and individuals may be able to get some sort of thing by individuals selling their own persona information, health information, and so on. However, this is only a partial special area in terms of current income comparison.

Besides the basic income, the important thing is that high-quality, low-priced basic services are being offered fairly. The service here is not a public service but communication, energy, transportation / logistics, financial services provided at zero marginal cost. Service has already been established in the communication area, such as Google and Facebook. Energy as well, Elon mask is building photovoltaic power generation, Giga factory's storage of electricity, with electric vehicle Tesla Motors in set. The optimum route calculation is possible with data and AI for transportation, and automatic driving is also introduced. With the evolution of 3D printers, if you send data and materials as well, it will soon be the day that "Make or Delivery" that makes products anywhere will become mainstream. Edge computing, block chains, bit coins, etc. are also established as basic services of finance that supports zero marginal cost society.

Thomas Piketty argues that problems are solved by eliminating asset gaps and income gaps as a matter of fact, but realistic hurdles will be higher there. Of course, people who can afford economically will continue to purchase premium services and goods, but as in "income gap" at the moment, "human disparity of wealth" is not born in the world you ought to go.

In a year when society throws away existing values and starts a new experiment

As I mentioned at the beginning, we are now approaching the stage of making "Future Society" by changing the values, lives and rules in response to the action of digitization and the reactions arising from it. Even in the process where the feudalism collapsed once and the industrialized society consisting of the nation state was born, human beings worked on the same thing. Between the actions and reactions of the industrial revolution, we developed a set of democracy and capitalism as the de facto, to evolve society and to securely support it while reminding and resisting anxiety.

This time, we are breaking it and we are going further. The only difference, however, is the sense of speed that is required for conversion. The era of the industrial revolution has rebuilt the society over the century, but what is causing this change now is digital technology evolving at geometric speed. With the arrival of a society with zero marginal cost, we will have to complete the form of a new society in the next generation.

For example, demonstration experiments of basic income are progressing in areas where unemployment and immigration problems are serious, such as Finland and France, but in Switzerland which rejected the experiment and in Japan which has not yet been discussed, People who earn incomes, if they acquire excellent basic services, think they will not work and that society will not enrich. " In Japan in particular, the concept "work is virtue" interferes. This does not suit everything. Now that we can confirm that we can not go back, now in 2017 we have to make it a year to challenge for new attempts, eliminating any bottleneck anyway.

When entering into a new society, we need to consider management style

So how about the future of the company? Currently, I think that there are three management styles in the market. "Hierarchy management" "Holacracy management" and "Exponential management". Hierarchy management is a model aiming for efficient management with standard processes and mechanisms suitable for industrialized society. Holacracy management is a model aiming for value creation by combining diverse human resources on a project basis. Exponential management is a model aiming at realization by setting up Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP) that changes society, building on-demand staff and ecosystem, and maximizing the use of digital power.

Companies managed by hierarchy are obliged to become AI, RPA, and take charge of certain areas of society, but they will not be able to escape between shareholders seeking profits and employees seeking employment. Meanwhile, companies that manage holacracy must continue to challenge to pursue creativity in order to realize sustainable growth with unique value.

Exponential management companies are adaptable to the newest society and the growth speed may rise exponentially, but we have to keep fighting in a fierce competitive environment that we will end if we lose to other companies in the same industry I will. Zero marginal cost. Although we mentioned that not only basic income but also high quality, low unit price basic service is essential for society, it is the exporter company that supports the middle of that. It can be said that our future will depend on their existence.

In that sense, in any management style, business managers will be asked how they will fulfill their responsibilities to society. It is not the level of so-called CSR, CSV, etc. It will be an era when the project itself does not contribute directly to society as a business. In addition to shareholder responsibility of whether profit is raised, does it provide value for people to be in trouble if they are out of society? The question of becoming increasingly important.

For example, what happens to society if Google and Amazon are gone? Think about it. Is not there a right mind here that a company with exponential management is setting MTP and making efforts to change the world while generating enormous profits?

What value does the company offer in a marginal cost zero society that comes close to approaching sound? In 2017 I would like to have a year to start designing and investing towards changing business models while looking at the coming future.

100 Years Life, in a year to think about how each person wants to live

And about the individual. At "Future Society", work gets replaced with AI, a robot, and at the same time it gets time and freedom. There is no significant meaning for economic richness, and the way of work also diversifies. To earn with the so-called "own AI", it is normal to have a side job. IoH, genome technology advances, health care life is prolonged by preventive medicine, and "100 years life" of Linda Gratton is reality.

After all, those who do not have "how they want to live" can’t live a rich life in a true sense. As society's values change at overwhelming speed, what kind of life, what kind of life do you want to live yourself, and so on?

Finally. On digital traps that make it difficult to see the essence

It was very long, but one last. Whether this time Britain's referendum or presidential election, most of the intellectuals who should be cautious about information could not predict that EU withdrawal, trump emergence can occur in reality. I also did, but despite the obvious "sign" I felt, although I discussed the possibility, I could not get it from the straight.

In the past, we have chronologically changed society by roughly ten years. Over the past 20 years, as it is a keyword for 'globalization' and 'digitization' overlapping there, it seems that every phenomenon affecting politics, society, corporate activity, individual life has been explained as it is in that context I think. However, he missed the most essential "heart of man".

One of the reasons behind this is the trap of digital communication embedded in society. Algorithm for automatically recommending information that you like is already installed in the digital society. This means that "If you do not want to see the information you do not want to see, it will automatically be eliminated" is installed. It is nothing but anything other than misunderstanding the essence that the information overflowing in front of one's eyes is felt like a common intention of society.

This time we saw for the first time that society's will to the world "not being promoted" by myself, there can exist the center of gravity of the world there.

What should we do in order to constantly see the essence, always look at the times, make decisions, and act. I would like to do another year of thinking about how to collect information, thinking, and communication of my own.